Amazing that we subsidize water intensive crops alfalfa rice corn to be grown in a desert when they can easily be produced where it actually rains. Maybe if the water rights out west were in line with reality then you would not be producing alfalfa and rice and corn in California along with the dairy cattle that are dependent upon the alfalfa and corn.

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What damage is enough to tip the global prices one way or another? As a traded commodity don't they fluctuate on the whims of investor sentiment? So even if what you say is true could they overestimate the problem, and cause prices to go up? Also with California being a bread-basket for US (plus exports) but relying on imported water - could we be close to realizing some real consequences on prices? In NZ tomatoes are the thing that just has not come down at all...since COVID and some tomato disease impacted them more than a year ago....

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It depends on the elasticity of the commodity. Cotton is relatively elastic at the moment because inventories are high. This means quantity changes are unlikely to cause big price changes. I walked through this question in detail in my Russia-Ukraine article: https://agdatanews.substack.com/p/were-not-facing-a-global-food-crisis?r=i2qe&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

The effects of investor sentiment on commodity prices tend to be overstated.

California's challenges could eventually show up noticeably in the supermarket, but probably less than people think. Water shortages hit rice, wheat and alfalfa first, and those can be grown elsewhere. Also, we are importing more and more fruit and veg from Central and South America.

Didn't know about the NZ tomato issues. Thanks.

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