Out of Season, Now in Reach: The Rise of Off-Season Agricultural Imports

Source: ChatGPT

This article was written by UC Berkeley ARE PhD student Liam Frolund. It is the first of several excellent articles written by students in my ARE 242 class this spring that I will publish here.

In April, the Trump administration announced that it would be cancelling the Tomato Suspension Agreement, a trade agreement with Mexico that had, since 1996, suspended tariffs on Mexican fresh tomatoes that were allegedly being sold in the US at below-market prices. New 21% tariffs on tomatoes would come into effect on July 14.

What is notable about the timing of this cancellation is that these new tariffs would kick in at the start of the California tomato harvest, at a time when domestic tomato production is at its highest while imports and prices are at their low points for the year. Last year, California production began in earnest the week of July 13 and peaked the week of August 24.

This episode highlights a broader trend: as American incomes have risen, Americans have consumed more food of all kinds at all times of the year. This trend has made the US a net importer of food for the first time in its history.

The increase in imports is not driven by weakness in American exports (in fact, agricultural exports continue to break records alongside imports), but rather by the tastes of American consumers.

For as long as there has been data, US imports have been made up almost entirely of high-value imports — fresh fruits and vegetables, tropical crops, and their products. These are products that cannot be produced domestically at the same time or scale, many arriving when domestic harvests are lowest. These products have driven the growth in imports; imported fruits and vegetables now account for 59 and 40 percent of US consumption, respectively.

A Case of Oranges

One historical case study illustrates this transformation vividly. In the 20^th century, oranges were a seasonal luxury produced in California and Florida. Having two separate crops on opposite ends of the country helped insulate orange consumers from the vagaries of weather — but to a limit. In 1989, the Christmas Freeze destroyed 30% of the Florida orange crop. A year later, the California orange crop faced two weeks of freezing temperatures and lost 60 percent of the state’s crop.

Two massive shocks to the national orange crop in a row could have caused a shortage of oranges and empty shelves. Instead, an unprecedented $45 million worth of oranges were imported in 1991, over 10 times more than the year before and the year after and mostly from Mexico, Spain, and Morocco. These imports were a one-off at the time but were a proof of concept nonetheless — Americans need not rely solely on their own farmers or their own weather.

Today, as many fresh oranges are imported in August as were in the whole of 1991. However, oranges no longer merely replace Florida or California crops. Instead Chilean and South African oranges arrive in the summer and fall when American farmers aren’t producing. American consumers can now buy oranges year-round.

Where once American citrus trade saw relatively constant imports and exports peaking in the early spring, imports now have their own complementary seasonal pattern, peaking in August and September. Over time, these imports have come to even dominate exports over much of the year.

Beyond Oranges

The globalization of fruit supply chains illustrates a deeper transformation in U.S. agriculture: the shift from self-contained, seasonal production to a year-round, consumption-driven model embedded in global trade.

Oranges are but one example. They were preceded by the introduction of Chilean grapes beginning in the 1980s. Grape trade patterns are much starker than oranges; grape imports are near zero during the US harvest season. Even crops still dominated by US production—like apples, berries, and leafy greens—now rely on imported supplements during shoulder seasons.

The result is a fruit and vegetable sector no longer tied strictly to US fields. Imports stretch production and smooth consumption. Producers can also benefit from the reverse process: exporting their own goods during the harvest season to smooth prices and prevent gluts.

For consumers though, the chief benefit lies in the improved variety. USDA researchers Carlos Arnade and Fred Kuchler estimate the consumer welfare benefits of just having berries in the winter at over $3 billion annually. I, myself, cannot even imagine not being able buy strawberries at the store whenever I want them.

Takeaways for Policymakers

The seasonality of American agricultural trade represents an additional dimension for analysts and policymakers. There are huge costs to undermining these trade flows. Understanding the effects of the Trump administration’s erratic trade policies on consumers and farmers requires looking beyond annual numbers and at least paying attention to the weather outside.

On the other hand, though, these seasonal arrangements do offer opportunities for creative trade officials in the US and abroad to time trade actions around the harvest calendar. Unfortunately for Americans, this kind of prudence seems unlikely. Even in the case of the cancelled tomato agreement, the fortunate timing seems to have been mere fortune: the July 14 date was not carefully chosen but just the soonest the agreement could be cancelled.